The only bad thing about winning the pennant is that you have to manage the All-Star Game the next year. I'd rather go fishing for three days. -Whitey Herzog
Dear Dave,
Happy Independence Day, my friend! Although there are several personality traits of our country currently that I will not count as points of pride (Hillary and Trump…really, America? Really??), I will always remain proud of baseball - our nation’s pastime and something simultaneously beautiful and also quintessentially American. All I want to do right now is watch Sandlot, eat apple pie, and reminisce about 1776, or as I like to refer to them, “the good old days”.
So much has happened since I last wrote to you, and yet the state of things seems to have remained much the same. At 35 games in, the Royals were 6.5 games back in the division. Now, at 80 games in, we find ourselves 6 games back - albeit to the Cleveland Indians instead of the Chicago White Sox. Your Cubs, then 19 games above .500, now find themselves just 21 games above .500. Mirroring life, there have been mountains in the past 45 games…and there have certainly been valleys. The undulations could stand to be smoothed; Jesus, take the wheel!
Here is a bit of a recap of what has happened during this time from KC’s camp:
On Friday, May 27, the Royals hosted the White Sox for a 3-game series over the weekend. It was the best weekend of regular season baseball I have watched in my life. On Friday night, down 5-2 late, the Royals scored in the sixth, seventh, and eighth innings to win the game 7-5. Then, on Saturday, the unthinkable happened. This time, down 7-1 in the ninth inning, they would go on to score seven runs in the bottom of the ninth to walk off with a victory. The chance of victory was literally one in a thousand, and they pulled it off. Afterward, I went back and watched the Chicago broadcast of the bottom of the ninth, just so that I could witness Hawk Harrelson’s steady incredulous, melancholic descent into madness. As if that magic wasn’t enough, the Royals came from behind again on Sunday afternoon. This time, biding their time against the future AL Cy Young winner Chris Sale, they scored three runs in the bottom of the eighth against a weak Chicago bullpen in order to win 5-4. That’s three come-from-behind victories in what was at the time a crucial series against the hated, at the time division-leading White Sox. The Royals continue to have an uncanny penchant for late-game heroics.
Following that, the Royals would go on to sweep the Tampa Bay Rays, closing out a six game win streak which would put them 2.5 games in front of the division. It was short-lived. Following the Tampa series, the Royals went on the road to Cleveland for a four-game series. In the first game, they took a one-run lead into the ninth inning and would end up getting Royaled by the Indians for a loss. Having gotten so used to the kind of bullpen that quite literally does not allow runs in late innings, I was left in the wake of that loss struggling to identify the emotions one feels when losing a game late. I believe the technical term for it is choking, and it sucks. It was the start of a disastrous eight-game losing streak. They followed that up by winning eight games out of nine. Momentum is a funny thing, and the Royals have either enjoyed it or fallen prey to it perhaps more than the average bear this season.
The injury bug has continued to bite this team. A collision between left-fielder Alex Gordon and third-baseman Mike Moustakas on a foul popup left Gordon on the disabled list with a broken hand and Moustakas out for the year with torn ligaments in his knee - an incident I know that you as a Cubs fan can empathize with. Then, the very Saturday afternoon game I referenced earlier in which the Royals came back to score seven runs in the bottom of the ninth against the Sox, our all-star catcher and World Series MVP Salvador Perez was injured in a similar collision with replacement third-baseman Cheslor Cuthbert. Several games ago, Lorenzo Cain had to be put on the 15-day disabled list thanks to a hamstring strain when attempting to leg out an infield single. And I just literally watched as starting pitcher Yordano Ventura twisted his ankle on the base paths after singling in a National League game against the Phillies. He had to be removed from the game. It feels like the remarkable health the Royals have enjoyed these past two seasons has finally caught up with them and compounded in 2016. Baseball truly is a 162-game battle of attrition - a battle the Royals are currently losing decisively.
Meanwhile, the Cleveland Indians have been running away with the division. Their win in a 19-inning marathon against the Toronto Blue Jays on Friday afternoon culminated a 15-game winning streak that began just after Kansas City swept them at home. The significance of such a streak can’t be overstated. If Cleveland simply played .500 ball for the rest of their 147 games, they would end the year with about 89 wins, which can potentially win a division.
Normally, I’d be okay with Cleveland doing so well. I recently watched the documentary Believeland, which chronicles the city’s much-maligned sports history of the past half century. At the time, the Cavs were down 3-1 to the Warriors, and yet another heartbreak seemed imminent for the northeast Ohio faithful. But then we all bore witness to the remarkable comeback that broke Cleveland’s curse and emphatically pushed LeBron into the game’s Mt. Rushmore of elite players. I know that one championship does not make up for a city’s 50-year plight, but as the curse was washed away, so too went my sympathy. Call me heartless, but I no longer care. That’s the fan in me talking. As Cleveland has showed themselves to be a worthy adversary in the AL Central, I find myself seething with the animosity that comes from feeling legitimately threatened. And yes, I do mean that as a sort of compliment. In sports, you should always feel a sense of pride when people start to hate you; it means you’re doing something very right.
Nonetheless, good things have been taking shape as well. Alex Gordon is back healthy and looks better than he did before the injury. Kendrys Morales, who a month ago had struggled mightily at the plate - a luxury that can be ill afforded to a team’s designated hitter, has completely turned things around. Beginning June 25, Kendrys has gone 19-31 at the plate, with six homeruns. The manner in which he has carried the team throughout that stretch has led to my dubbing him “The Offense”. Danny Duffy, our young left-handed starting pitcher who has historically struggled with command and efficiency, all of a sudden looks like the second coming of Cliff Lee. He once could not get to the seventh inning if his life depended upon it; now he has had consecutive games in which he has gone 8+ innings and walked 0. Baseball old-timers will tell you that sometimes left-handed pitchers take a while to develop their command. Personally, that sounds like crotchety old, unfounded baseball speak to me, but Danny Duffy seems to be undergoing such a chrysalis. This could be incredibly significant because, while the Royals are 6 games back of their division, they are a mere half game back in the Wild Card currently. If they were to have to play in the sudden-death game again, Danny Duffy’s emergence as a dominant pitcher could mean the difference between the season’s conjunction or its period.
That’s the scuttlebutt on my boys. How about your Cubs? Let’s get the obvious out on the table: the Cubs are struggling - relative to the Cubs, of course. You won’t truly know struggling until your club loses eight straight. But yesterday’s loss culminated a 4-game sweep at the hands of the hated Metropolitans, in which the Cubs were outscored 32-11. The Mets just seem to be the Cubs’ kryptonite. They are now 8-0 against the Cubs dating back to last year’s NLCS playoffs. Of all the National League juggernauts to fear, I would imagine Cubs fans may be most intimidated by the prospect of meeting the Mets in the playoffs a second straight year. It’s been said that the enemy of my enemy is my friend. Here in Southern California, I am amongst Cubs fans and Dodgers fans. Throw me, a Royals fan in there, and you have every team who the Mets had to face last year in the postseason. Our collective hatred of New York's red-headed stepchild has been a very organic thing to share a bonding experience over.
Despite the Cubs’ struggles, it has been an absolute pleasure owning Cubs players on my fantasy team. I’ve been proactive in acquiring three of the Cubs’ big boppers - Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, and Willson Contreras. Even now, as I watch the Independence Day game against the Reds, I just literally saw Bryant and Contreras go deep in the same inning. Bryant seems to be transforming into a bonafide superstar before our very eyes. Just a week ago, he became the first player in Major League history to hit three home runs and two doubles in a game. When all is said and done, it will probably be the most impressive offensive performance from the 2016 season. As good as the legitimate MVP contender has been, Bryant still plays second fiddle offensively to his teammate Anthony Rizzo, as evidenced by Rizzo’s team-leading 1.006 OPS (Bryant is of course second, with .962).
There has been a lot of hubbub circulating around the prospect of the Cubs making a significant trade in order to acquire bullpen depth. Two names from the Yankees have been thrown out early and often - setup man Andrew Miller and closer Aroldis Chapman. Both are power left-handed arms and elite relievers who could complement Hector Rondon quite nicely. Rumor has it that the Yankees are going to drive a hard bargain for the acquisition of either - most likely Kyle Schwarber, who as we recall is out this season with torn knee ligaments in an injury akin to Mike Moustakas’ collision. I don’t know how you as a Cubs fan view it, but I don’t like the idea of the Cubs dealing Schwarber at all. I know that Schwarber seems like the perfect fit to hit in the American League, with the designated-hitter, but he’s also a power-hitting left-handed bat…in other words, precious baseball gold. The Schwarbers of the world are heaven-sent, and re-gifting them is like spitting in God’s face. In addition to wanting to avoid offending the Creator, there is pragmatism in keeping Schwarber as well. The Cubs have to consider sustaining this team’s future success, and I personally see Schwarber as a significant part of that success, in solidifying a viable “murderer’s row” in the lineup for years to come. If the Cubs can acquire either pitcher for the likes of Addison Russell or Javier Baez, then by all means, but don't trade Schwarber, who again, was knitted in his mother's womb to become a great hitter, packaged by angels with a big blue ribbon on top, and sent to Cubs nation with a note that reads, “We thought you might need this. You’re welcome.”
Dear Drew,
As I write this, I’m watching the Cubs play the Pirates. Jake Arrieta is on the same mound on which he dominated Pittsburgh in the Wild Card game last October. But right now, Arrieta…and the entire Cubs team for that matter, don’t resemble anything close to a playoff team. In fact, I’d say that this particular game is a microcosm of the Cubs’ last month: bad starting pitching, no clutch hitting, inconsistent relief pitching, and just a noticeable lack of swagger overall. They are crappy in every facet of the game, and somehow, the crappiness is contagious. I hate contagious crap.
Yes, I agree with you the Cubs are very much struggling, but not just by their own standards…I’d argue by any standard. They’ve now lost seven of eight, 13 of their last 18. (worst in the NL during the span) For the first 67 games of 2016, Cubs starting pitchers allowed 30 home runs. In the last 19 games, they’ve allowed 26. The Cubs are 4-28 when scoring less than 4 runs. I could go on with more stats, but you get the point: the Cubs have been a mediocre team for about a month now. Cubs President Theo Epstein said recently, “Honestly it’s just a baseball reality. It's impossible to win at the pace we were winning at early in the season the whole year. Every team, even championship-caliber clubs, go through a month or so where they play .500 or so baseball, and that's what we're doing. It's not surprising.”
They say a team is never really as amazing as it is during its best winning streaks, and it’s never as awful as it is during its worst losing streaks. In fact, I even apply this motto to life: life isn’t actually as amazing as it is during its best moments, but it’s not as awful as it is during its worst moments. The reality is, life is somewhere in-between those two extremes. And in my mind, I know the Cubs are somewhere in-between the two extremes we’ve experienced this year. They aren’t the juggernaut we saw the first month of the season, but they’re also not the lovable losers we’ve seen the last month. However, as a Cubs fan, my heart tells me this isn’t just “a baseball reality,” but The Curse taking effect once again. At one point does regression end and a new normal set in? Yes, it’s too early to panic, but as a Cubs fan, my cautious optimism has always been remarkably fragile. I’m not going to lie to you: my “unabated enthusiasm” from when I last wrote has turned to great concern.
So as we reach this year’s All-Star break, the unofficial halfway point of the season, I’m honestly wondering whether this team is still one year away from being legitimate World Series contenders. After all, this team is still quite young, we’re missing Schwarber, and the bullpen clearly has holes. And that leads me to your musings on Schwarber and our potential trade partner, the Yankees. I’m totally with you, I would not trade him for Andrew Miller. A lefty power bat is just far too valuable, and not even a dominant lefty reliever is worth that. Now, if the Cubs can find another way to land Miller, then I’m all for it (especially since I traded for him in fantasy), but I don’t think they should play this too aggressively. This team has years of highly competitive baseball in it, and I’d hate to see Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer jeopardize that future for this one season. If we can keep this nucleus intact, 2016 should only be the beginning.
A few concluding thoughts about my team: ironically, while the Cubs have collectively been at their worst in the past few weeks, Kris Bryant has been at his absolute best. As of this writing, he leads the National League with 25 home runs, and I’d argue that he is the first half NL MVP. I wish he was on my fantasy team too, because holy crap…this dude is for real. And he has dreamy eyes. But I do want to mention one guy that IS on my fantasy team, and that’s Dexter Fowler. He’s been on the DL for a few weeks now, and I think it’s no coincidence that that the Cubs have struggled during the same timespan. Fowler’s on-base abilities are vital to this team, not to mention his presence just makes this lineup deeper. He has been sorely missed, and I hope that his post-All Star break return makes a considerable difference. One thing is for sure…if the Cubs hadn’t re-signed Fowler over the offseason, this would be a very different team. The Cubs would also be a very different team without the emerging young talent of catcher/outfielder Wilson Contreras. I’ve been waiting for this guy ever since the Cubs’ “first wave” of prospects hit the big leagues last year. The fact that he’s been our everyday cleanup hitter says it all. Contreras can just hit. Add in his above-average defensive skills, and you’re potentially looking at one of the best catchers in baseball for years to come.
Now about your Royals…I must admit I’ve sort of unconsciously written them off since we last wrote. I was camping in the Smoky Mountains when I caught a brief moment of reception and received your cryptic text saying Moustakas was out for the year. You’re correct, I absolutely felt significant empathy for you when I received that news, and I could even detect your distress and despair through text. Losing an important player like that almost makes you sick to your stomach, especially when (like the Royals) there isn’t offensive depth on the roster to compensate for the loss. In the past month, the Royals seemingly have been buried in the standings.
That said, I don’t think the Indians are really this good. So since I invested all my pessimistic energy already into writing about the Cubs, let me know offer you some optimistic words of encouragement. As of this writing, the Royals are only 7.5 games back of the Indians, and there’s no way the Indians can continue the recent hot streak they’ve been on. In fact, odds are great that they won’t ever be this hot again this season. (It’s hard to top a 15-game winning streak!) Just take a look at that Indians lineup: it’s not that good. They’ve had several players all overachieving at once. I predict the Indians will slide enough to keep the Royals and Tigers in the mix. And even if the Indians don’t regress…the Royals are merely 2.5 games out of the Wild Card race. And if you need the best case for optimism, here it is: the 2014 Royals had a record of 48-46 at the All Star break, and they made it to the World Series…and nearly won. I think it’s safe to say they’ll have similar record at this year’s break. There’s still hope.
Yes, there’s still hope for your struggling Royals and my faltering Cubs. The optimism of March and April has quickly faded, and the realities of the 162-game marathon have set in. But just as things can negatively change on a dime, so can things quickly change in a positive way. I’m looking forward to all that the second half of the season has in store…both the ups and downs!
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