Sunday, October 9, 2016

Correspondence Between a Cubs Fan and a Royals Fan - Part 4: The Playoffs

For such a time as this...
-Esther 4:14



Dear Drew,

It’s hard to believe the end of the regular season is already upon us. In so many ways, it feels like just yesterday that we were both in Anaheim on Opening Day, watching my Chicago Cubs capture win #1 of 103. But in so many other ways, that feels like an eternity ago. It is now five months later, and SO much has happened in baseball and in life since that night…it’s been nothing short of a magical summer. Despite a pre-All Star break slide and a losing month of July, the Cubs have dominated baseball overall, in every facet of the game. They have captured their first 100-win season since 1935. They’ve won the NL Central, and won home field advantage through the NL playoffs. The team has been a true joy to watch, and they’ve been absolute must-see TV. Throughout my various travels and vacations throughout the summer, the Cubs’ success and consistency has brought a certain stability and continuity to life. Even when I’ve missed a few games while travelling, it’s been a thrill to check on the final scores, and hear of one miraculous game after another. I’ve always been a diehard Cubs fan, but if it was even possible…this year’s team was so dominant, so successful, and so darn likeable…that I now am more invested in this team than ever.

So let’s briefly review everything that has happened in Wrigleyville since we last wrote. After the All-Star break, the Cubs quickly righted the ship and eventually went on an 11-game winning streak at the beginning of August. After they distanced themselves from the Cards and Pirates in the division, they never looked back. Despite the Cubs domination, there was always a sense that the bullpen was the Achilles heel of the team. So at the end of July, Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer made a bold move, and traded top prospect Gleyber Torres and a few other players to the Yankees for dominant flamethrower Aroldis Chapman. I’m still very uncomfortable with Chapman’s ethical/moral presence on the team, but there’s no denying his supreme talent. Watching a 104 mph closer pitch for your own team is exhilarating. The Cubs definitely overpaid for Chapman, but if he pitches the final out of a World Series championship, it will all be worth it.

A significant storyline for the Cubs this year is their insanely awesome rotation. They have the 2015 Cy Young winner in Jake Arrietta. (who’s actually underperformed a bit) They have two legit 2016 Cy Young contenders in Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks. Can we just talk about Kyle “The Professor” Hendricks for a second? I’ve enjoyed watching his development and growth ever since the Cubs got him for Ryan Dempster, but never in a million years did I expect a year like this for him. NL leader in ERA?! Not bad for a guy who pitches around 90 mph on average. We quite possibly have the new Greg Maddux on our hands. But then we also have Jon Lester, who’s having nearly just as an impressive season as Hendricks. In fact, Hendricks and Lester are the top two ERA leaders in the NL, and are probably THE leading candidates for Cy Young. Though this team was built around young offensive talent, it’s the depth of the starting rotation that has been key to the Cubs’ success.

Speaking of the offensive talent, I can’t summarize the second half of the 2016 season without discussing Bryzzo. While Lester and Hendricks are leading Cy Young candidates, Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo are leading MVP candidates. Rizzo has been solid for a few years now, (and has been my favorite player, as evidenced by the Rizzo’s cereal box now proudly displayed in my apartment) but Bryant in particular has developed into a superstar. In only his second season in the bigs, he’s put up 100+ RBI and 39 homers…and he can play nearly anywhere in the field. And wait…did I mention his dreamy eyes?

Other young guys have taken steps forward. Javy Baez is a defensive wizard, but has also dramatically cut down on his strikeouts at the plate. Addison Russell has knocked in close to 100 runs, and has developed into a clutch hitter when the game is on the line. And thank God for the development of these guys, because they’ve adequately compensated for the offensive crappiness of Jason Heyward. Sure, he’s a Gold Glove fielder, but mercy…he’s had a horrific offensive year. Overall though, the lineup is deep, just like our rotation. The position players are quite versatile, and are interchangeable amongst their fielding positions. The defense is elite. And with the Strop-Rondon-Chapman connection now at the end of the bullpen…the Cubs appear to have no weaknesses.

And now as the green ivy of Wrigley begins to fade, the season of Fall dawns and playoff baseball is upon us. It feels SO different than last year. At this time a year ago, I just felt surprised and thankful the Cubs made it into the playoffs at all. Since the team was seemingly a year ahead of schedule in its development, I almost viewed the playoff run as just a nice bonus. But this year…well, there’s no doubt that anything less than a World Series championship would be a disappointment. So consequently, I’m incredibly excited, but I’m also VERY nervous. What if the entire magical season is undone by one week of lackluster playoff baseball? What if the offense chokes like it did last year in the NLCS? What if Arietta implodes when the team needs him the most? What if the team feels the weight of the expectations and The Curse?

I first wrote to you at the beginning of the season about my cautious optimism. The optimism then turned to giddiness, then to concern…my emotions naturally reflected the normal ups and downs of the regular season. But now, I’ve come full circle, and returned to cautious optimism. But, extra cautious. I don’t know what’s going to happen in the next month, but whatever happens doesn’t change the fact that this summer has been historically amazing.

I almost feel bad comparing our teams at this point. When we began our correspondence, our teams were both riding high…but over the course of the season, the Royals and Cubs have clearly gone different directions. I noticed the Royals did have a nice winning streak in August that briefly put them back in the Wild Card race, but alas…the injuries piled up, and the mediocrity in all facets of the game eventually undid them. I’d love to hear your analysis of the team. Were the 2016 Royals a disappointment? Or were the 2015 Royals playing above their heads? Or both?

I’m sure you’ll be cheering for the Cubs in the playoffs with the Royals out. But I’m not sure if you really need a vicarious experience, because of what the Royals gave you last year? At any rate, next time I write to you, the Cubs could very well be basking in their first World Series championship in over a century.

With unabated caution and optimism,
Dave



Dear Dave,

I thought long and hard about actually writing this post from a booth at Denny’s. You know, actually dining at the restaurant, ordering up a Grand Slam meal and some watery coffee, and churning out this blog with the taste of mediocrity fresh on my tongue. My Royals finished 2016 with a record of 81-81…the epitome of average. I had hopes when we began this correspondence that both of our teams would be vying for their respective pennants once the playoffs began; as such, only you can say as much. But you can keep your sympathy, my good friend. After back-to-back World Series appearances and a championship in 2015, I feel that expecting my team to be playoff-bound again would be greedy, especially taking into account that I waited my entire life just to see them make the playoffs two years ago. God help me if I ever become an entitled fan the likes of a Yankees fan. I suppose as a fan, I can sit this year out.

To answer your questions, yes, I think the Royals underperformed this season, just as they most likely over-performed in 2015. A lot went right for Kansas City in 2014-15; I suppose balance was inevitable. Still, after six consecutive seasons of improving upon their previous record, it’s hard to experience regression. The exhilarating youth movement that has occurred on Kansas City’s roster for quite some time at last seems to be tapering. After 2017, we lose control of both Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas, whose play and intangibles have been integral in lifting the fog of a plagued (I won’t use the “c” word) losing franchise, and replacing it with one that absolutely has a winning culture and realistic championship aspirations. That being said, I think the overall feeling in Kansas City is that we have a one-year window to contend with the pieces that currently comprise what has proved to be an incredible team. We’d better make it count…

The second half of this season was one that featured both soaring heights and depressing lows. It’s worth noting that the All-Star Game was a declaration of the stardom represented in both of our dugouts. As you’ll remember, Kris Bryant’s first inning solo homerun was followed in the bottom of the second by a solo shot by Eric Hosmer and then a two-run bomb by Salvador Perez. In the bottom of the third, Hosmer plated one more run with an RBI-single, as he would go on to earn MVP honors in the game. All four American League runs were generated off Royals bats. Although an exhibition game, it was still titillating to see our guys produce on the big stage yet again. I must apologize in advance, however, if the home field advantage the Royals won the American League for the World Series comes back to bite the Cubs in any way.

A horrible July (in which I had abandoned all hope of playoffs) gave way to a terrific August, in which the Royals rattled off a 9-game win streak in the middle of a 16 wins in 19 games stretch and positioned themselves to within 2 games of that second wild card. At one point, Danny Duffy, who at the age of 28 has had an incredibly frustrating and inconsistent career, was lauded by national pundits in regards to a Cy Young contention. But as you know, in this game you live and die by pitching, and the same starting pitching that had been the backbone of the team’s surge imploded late in the season, and they wound up limping down the stretch towards their first .500 or below record in three seasons. But as the Giants and Red Sox have taught us, just because you miss the playoffs one year doesn’t mean that you can’t win a championship the next. We will look onward with hope to 2017!

You wrote to me with the Cubs’ regular season still unfinished and their final record of a magnificent season yet undetermined. Well that number ended up 103-58 - a robust .640 winning percentage. No other team in baseball was over .600; no other team was even truly close. Both Washington and Texas ended the season with a .586 percentage. The Cubs’ overall run differential posted at +252; no other team was even close to 200. Most years you could debate who the best team in baseball was at the conclusion of the season. Not in 2016. Your Cubs were hands down the best.

The disparity between the product the Cubs have put on the field and the competition is a bit mind-blowing. Most teams would be overjoyed to have a legitimate MVP or Cy Young candidate, let alone two of each! You’ve already mentioned the emergence of the two-headed MVP monster that is Bryzzo. The similarity between their respective numbers in 2016 was a bit uncanny. They both batted .292. They both had on-base percentages of .385. Bryant’s OPS was .939; Rizzo’s was .928. Why Bryant will probably wind up winning MVP honors is because homeruns are sexy, and so is he. He hit 39 of them, while Rizzo hit a mere 32. Bryant also had a significantly higher WAR, at 6.6, compared with Rizzo’s 4.6. This must be due to defensive metrics, which I think are slightly overvalued in WAR, as there is no way Bryant was that much more valuable than Rizzo; however it may speak towards the value of Bryant’s versatility in the field, with the ability to play first, third, and outfield, whereas Rizzo is the conventional one-trick-pony at first. And Bryant does have those dreamy eyes…

You also mentioned The Professor - Kyle Hendricks and Jon Lester as possible Cy Young candidates. Each of these pitchers owns certain categories over the other that would make his respective case compelling. Hendricks possesses the better ERA (2.13 to Lester’s 2.44). Lester, however, has more strikeouts (197 to 170), more innings pitched (202.2 to 190), and more wins to boot (19 to 16). This year’s race feels different from the last in that last year’s featured three candidates with otherworldly numbers, each of whom would’ve won this year’s Cy Young going away. Despite both Hendricks and Lester being deserving, I think Max Sherzer of the Nats will probably wind up winning, given that he bests both pitchers in terms of wins (20), strikeouts (284), and innings pitched (228.1). He also possesses the better WAR (6.2 to 5.0 and 5.3).

But enough about regular season exploits; that is all merely to get one’s team in position for the postseason, and two games into the Divisional Series against the Giants, things couldn’t look much better for the Cubbies. Though Madison He-Who-Shall-Not-Be-Named continues to be untouchable in the playoffs, that has not affected the Cubs, since he used his 119-pitch shutout against the Mets in the Wild Card Game. That is the beauty of this new playoff format, as it truly places value on winning your division versus making it in as a Wild Card. If San Francisco had not had a crappy second half and had taken care of business, they would’ve won the NL West, played the Nationals rather than the Cubs, and saved He-Who-Shall-Not-Be-Named’s gem to get ahead in Game 1. As is, now He-Who-Shall-Not-Be-Named has to pitch another beauty just to simply keep the Giants in the mix of things, and he will only be pitching in one game this series,  as opposed to two. These are not trivial details but factors that could end up deciding the fate of this series.

But I don’t want to depict the Cubs’ 2-0 lead as falling into a fortunate scenario. Far from it! The Cubs very much deserved to be in this situation due to their regular season dominance. And in those first two games, the Cubs still had to outperform their opponent, who by the way threw another ace against them in Game 1 in Johnny Cueto. Cueto was brilliant, but Lester was better. And when unlikely hero Javy Baez hit the go-ahead homerun in the bottom of the eighth, it was time for Joe Maddon to release the Kraken in the form of the most dominant closer in baseball - Aroldis Chapman, whom the Cubs had traded for earlier this season for such a time as this. Chapman has already converted both save opportunities presented to him, including a perfect ninth with two strikeouts on Saturday.

This sets up a compelling, must-see matchup for tomorrow night, as Madison He-Who-Shall-Not-Be-Named will face off against last year’s leviathan and Cubs’ own mountain man Jake Arrieta. The pressure now rests decidedly on the Giants. My hope is that the Cubs can be the first postseason team to find a chink in MadBum’s armor, and they can finish this thing tomorrow night, thereby putting an end to this stupid “Giants win every even year” bullshit. When the Mets beat the Cubs in the second round of the playoffs last season, my Royals avenged you. The last team to beat the Royals in the playoffs was of course the Giants. Please return the favor, my friend.

The next time we correspond, for better or for worse, the baseball season will be over. We will either be singing the Cubs’ praises or offering up a dirge. I will be cheering for them every step of the way. If we as Royals fans have to let go of the championship scepter, I can think of no better fan base to place it in the hands of than yours. Go Cubs, go!


With vicarious enthusiasm,
Drew